tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G7 4604 GoJet EWR 10:15 ILM 12:16 7% 2% 0.9% no record
UA 4511 United flown by GoJet Flight history → EWR 20:57 ILM 22:41 16% 5% 1.2% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731 6h 38m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 7h 32m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 12:10 → ILM 13:20AA 5416 · flown by PSA 5h 50m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:25 → ILM 11:43AA 3970 · flown by Envoy 6h 13m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070 7h 35m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → EWR 13:35 → CLT 15:26AA 1697 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 17:14 → ILM 18:23AA 2105 4h 48m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON