tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 3683 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 3683 EWR 06:15 → IND 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3447 EWR 19:55 → IND 21:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 3683 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 06:15 IND 08:23 5% 2% 1.5% 90%
UA 3446 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 11:54 IND 14:07 11% 3% 1.3% 87%
UA 3669 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 09:52 IND 12:05 11% 3% 1.3% 88%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 15:47 IND 18:06 21% 6% 1.7% 85%
UA 3519 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 18:29 IND 20:57 25% 9% 2.1% 81%
UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 19:55 IND 21:50 29% 8% 1.7% 86%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON