Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2147 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:08 → LAS 08:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1283 EWR 20:10 → LAS 22:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:08	LAS 08:34	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:40	LAS 11:57	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	18%	4%	0.7%	82%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:31	LAS 17:01	23%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:23	LAS 18:39	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1283 United	EWR 20:10	LAS 22:27	30%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	7h 46m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON