Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2434 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2434 EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2434 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	LAX 08:53	9%	2%	0.9%	79%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:49	12%	3%	1.0%	76%
UA 2445 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:37	15%	4%	0.9%	81%
UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	16%	7%	0.8%	78%
UA 2679 United Flight history →	EWR 10:45	LAX 13:41	17%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 2692 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	LAX 11:53	17%	4%	0.8%	69%
UA 2191 United Flight history →	EWR 14:15	LAX 17:13	19%	6%	0.8%	78%
UA 8138 United	EWR 16:06	LAX 18:43	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	25%	9%	1.0%	74%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	26%	10%	0.8%	72%
UA 1355 United	EWR 17:23	LAX 20:04	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 712 United Flight history →	EWR 20:10	LAX 23:15	30%	11%	0.8%	59%
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	31%	11%	0.9%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 55m	96%	86%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758	1h 33m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	8h 25m	100%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → LAX 10:59UA 1734	7h 59m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON