tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3436 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 14:47 MCI 17:02 8% 2% 0.6% 82%
UA 1399 United Flight history → EWR 21:43 MCI 23:59 16% 5% 0.6% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 10:04 → MCI 11:37DL 1349 6h 22m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 57m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 21m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 7h 13m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 50m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 44m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 3h 11m Chicago ORD 10:53 → MCI 12:40UA 5997 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 59m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:32 → ORD 07:59AA 3027 2h 21m Chicago ORD 10:20 → MCI 12:04AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 6h 59m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON