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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 56m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 54m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 44m 97% 80%
FrontierDetails → EWR 11:37 → ATL 14:01F9 4601 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:09 → MDW 18:28F9 2779 7h 51m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 4h 14m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 7h 30m 98% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 54m 98% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577 3h 09m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 6h 29m 97% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON