Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:29	MEM 15:25	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:23	MEM 23:30	11%	3%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	57m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:46DL 1627	4h 46m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 44m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681	7h 38m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 15m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	57m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	97%	88%
United Details →	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MEM 14:42UA 5414 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON