Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2866 EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	5%	2%	1.2%	89%
UA 283 United	EWR 07:14	MSP 09:03	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:47	MSP 13:45	13%	4%	1.0%	82%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:00	MSP 17:08	18%	7%	1.1%	78%
UA 424 United	EWR 14:16	MSP 16:12	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	24%	9%	0.8%	62%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:00	26%	12%	1.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON