Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1527 EWR 08:37 → MSY 10:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 782 EWR 15:48 → MSY 18:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1527 United Flight history →	EWR 08:37	MSY 10:53	8%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	EWR 12:33	MSY 14:44	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 782 United Flight history →	EWR 15:48	MSY 18:03	13%	5%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	52m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	4h 46m	91%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON