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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 94% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 10h 41m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758 1h 13m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 55m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 52m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 10h 20m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:19 → PHX 09:32AA 1282 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → ONT 12:20AA 2661 8h 01m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → EWR 11:04 → PHX 13:22AA 2825 3h 27m Phoenix PHX 16:49 → ONT 18:17AA 1666 10h 13m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 54m Seattle SEA 11:29 → ONT 13:59AS 571 9h 34m 73% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON