Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3185 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 3185 EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3900 EWR 17:13 → ORD 18:36 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	11%	5%	3.2%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:42	11%	3%	1.5%	92%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	EWR 06:32	ORD 07:59	17%	5%	2.6%	87%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	18%	5%	1.3%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:10	ORD 08:27	21%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	21%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	22%	8%	1.3%	79%
AA 752 American	EWR 10:48	ORD 12:25	23%	10%	2.5%	no record
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:03	ORD 12:19	25%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	ORD 14:43	26%	12%	1.4%	77%
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:25	ORD 16:12	28%	13%	3.3%	no record
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 17:32	ORD 19:29	31%	21%	3.4%	54%
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	36%	13%	1.4%	50%
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 21:36	ORD 22:54	37%	15%	1.2%	71%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	40%	17%	1.4%	69%
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	40%	18%	1.5%	50%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:51	ORD 22:24	42%	18%	1.4%	no record
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	45%	21%	1.6%	44%
UA 3900 United	EWR 17:13	ORD 18:36	48%	19%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON