Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2646 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2612 EWR 18:38 → PHX 20:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PHX 08:42	6%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:19	PHX 09:32	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 11:04	PHX 13:22	10%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 1289 United	EWR 10:11	PHX 12:34	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	PHX 15:28	14%	3%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 676 United	EWR 18:16	PHX 20:36	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:16	PHX 22:27	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:38	PHX 20:43	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	6h 55m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 22m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON