Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3649 EWR 16:34 → ROC 17:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4169 EWR 21:28 → ROC 22:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3649 Republic	EWR 16:34	ROC 17:58	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 11:05	ROC 12:25	11%	2%	0.8%	81%
G7 4169 GoJet	EWR 21:28	ROC 22:41	15%	4%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON