Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1115 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1115 EWR 07:50 → RSW 10:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2188 EWR 19:01 → RSW 22:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1115 United Flight history →	EWR 07:50	RSW 10:53	9%	3%	1.2%	88%
UA 1810 United	EWR 12:04	RSW 15:19	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1832 United Flight history →	EWR 15:34	RSW 18:43	18%	8%	1.6%	77%
UA 2188 United	EWR 19:01	RSW 22:10	21%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON