tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 591 United Flight history → EWR 09:29 SAT 12:30 17% 4% 0.6% 87%
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:20 SAT 15:21 17% 7% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 03m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 5h 59m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:31 → SAT 17:20DL 2199 11h 05m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → EWR 12:35 → DFW 15:14AA 1796 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → SAT 18:54AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 7h 19m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:19 → PHX 09:32AA 1282 2h 53m Phoenix PHX 12:25 → SAT 16:52AA 570 10h 33m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 40m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 57m Houston IAH 09:38 → SAT 10:54UA 1371 5h 54m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:32 → ORD 19:29AA 1691 1h 50m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 7h 38m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON