Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1636 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day


UA 1636 United	EWR 12:00	SAV 14:24	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2645 United Flight history →	EWR 20:33	SAV 22:38	27%	8%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 11:12 → SAV 14:38UA 1612	8h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067	6h 08m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → SAV 10:27DL 3054	4h 27m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:03 → SAV 16:14DL 3014	5h 43m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SAV 18:59DL 527	6h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAV 10:52DL 1119	4h 52m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic	57m Boston	BOS 11:51 → SAV 14:36DL 5647 · flown by Republic	5h 06m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	5h 56m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON