Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 373 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day AS 373 EWR 09:10 → SEA 11:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 296 EWR 20:05 → SEA 22:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:10	SEA 11:51	16%	3%	1.3%	96%worse than usual
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	19%	4%	1.3%	74%
UA 1330 United Flight history →	EWR 08:50	SEA 11:57	19%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 1814 United	EWR 15:27	SEA 18:24	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2693 United	EWR 18:37	SEA 21:26	32%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 296 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 20:05	SEA 22:34	35%	8%	1.0%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 13m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	46m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	7h 34m	81%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON