Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2004 EWR 17:45 → SFO 20:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	9%	2%	1.1%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	16%	4%	1.2%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	19%	5%	1.1%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	20%	5%	1.0%	50%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	24%	6%	0.9%	68%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	24%	6%	0.9%	72%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	26%	8%	1.2%	73%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	30%	9%	1.1%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	31%	10%	1.2%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	32%	12%	1.1%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	36%	11%	1.2%	62%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 17:45	SFO 20:28	38%	10%	1.3%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:45 → CVG 11:53DL 5026 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Hebron	CVG 13:06 → SFO 14:49DL 860	8h 04m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 25m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON