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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 46m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 28m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 11h 03m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:19 → PHX 09:32AA 1282 1h 30m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 50m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 3h 37m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 35m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 11:04 → PHX 13:22AA 2825 3h 00m Phoenix PHX 16:22 → SJC 18:29AA 2094 10h 25m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758 1h 23m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 8h 28m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 9h 24m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON