Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1926 United	EWR 18:40	SMF 21:43	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 54m	98%	92%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:48 → SMF 13:28UA 2673	8h 36m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 32m	98%	91%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	8h 51m	97%	90%
American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078	10h 55m	99%	90%
American Details →	EWR 06:32 → ORD 07:59AA 3027	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → SMF 14:34AA 1906	11h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	97%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON