Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2423 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 07:18 → SNA 09:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 07:18	SNA 09:53	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:38	SNA 17:30	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SNA 20:06	20%	5%	0.7%	87%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	49m Detroit	DTW 08:39 → SNA 10:34DL 1857	7h 34m	96%	85%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	57m Chicago	ORD 08:12 → SNA 10:49AA 1920	8h 19m	95%	83%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	49m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383	7h 59m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON