tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2772 at 08:30, 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2772 United Flight history → EWR 08:30 SRQ 11:19 22% 5% 2.1% 66%
UA 1324 United Flight history → EWR 20:09 SRQ 23:15 26% 8% 1.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:24DL 3115 6h 54m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109 7h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 3h 28m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 12m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:28AA 1452 6h 28m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 13:35 → CLT 15:25AA 1697 3h 47m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:06AA 2604 7h 31m 100% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON