Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1979 EWR 07:00 → TPA 09:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2777 EWR 15:07 → TPA 18:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1979 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	TPA 09:51	8%	2%	2.0%	94%
UA 601 United	EWR 12:01	TPA 15:07	10%	3%	2.1%	no record
UA 1273 United Flight history →	EWR 12:28	TPA 15:29	10%	3%	2.1%	81%
UA 1415 United	EWR 09:25	TPA 12:23	12%	2%	1.9%	no record
UA 1647 United	EWR 19:07	TPA 22:08	20%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 1505 United	EWR 20:30	TPA 23:26	20%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 2777 United Flight history →	EWR 15:07	TPA 18:07	22%	6%	2.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON