Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	98%	89%
United Details →	EWR 13:00 → ORD 14:43UA 2053	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	7h 32m	99%	69%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:32UA 2071	6h 47m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON