Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3368 EYW 18:28 → CLT 21:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3822 EYW 15:31 → CLT 18:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3368 Envoy	EYW 18:28	CLT 21:04	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EYW 14:17	CLT 16:43	16%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 3822 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 15:31	CLT 18:04	18%	6%	0.9%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON