tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 4389 at 12:43, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4389 Republic EYW 12:43 DCA 15:41 18% 7% 7.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 4h 57m 90% 78%
DeltaDetails → EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 5h 34m 90% 74%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832 7h 52m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 6h 23m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → EYW 15:31 → CLT 18:04AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:20AA 527 6h 49m 95% 65%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:17 → CLT 16:43AA 1816 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 20:17 → DCA 21:48AA 2432 7h 31m 95% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON