Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3502 at 14:21, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3502 Republic	EYW 14:21	EWR 17:52	24%	11%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 30m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 57m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527	5h 36m	91%	75%
American Details →	EYW 14:17 → CLT 16:43AA 1816	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	7h 55m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON