Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:39, 64% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FAI 08:39 → SEA 13:04AS 285	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → DEN 17:53AS 602	7h 14m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 12:44 → DEN 16:15AS 304	8h 44m	96%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON