Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Anchorage, leaving 10:01, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day


SY 3009 Sun Country	FAI 08:55	PDX 13:51	22%	6%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27DL 1061	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → PDX 22:00DL 3913 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	87%	77%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:36 → PDX 13:32AS 488	7h 01m	95%	72%
Alaska Details →	FAI 08:40 → SEA 13:09AS 285	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 15:55 → PDX 16:51AS 441	7h 11m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAI 10:01 → ANC 11:14AS 204	58m Anchorage	ANC 12:12 → PDX 16:43AS 318	5h 42m	69%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON