Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 219 at 01:28 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AS 219 FAI 01:28 → SEA 05:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 210 FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 219 Alaska	FAI 01:28	SEA 05:58	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	23%	5%	0.9%	79%
AS 242 Alaska	FAI 16:08	SEA 20:51	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 331 Alaska	FAI 11:59	SEA 16:42	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 285 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 08:40	SEA 13:09	30%	5%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	31%	4%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON