Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5588 FAT 06:23 → LAX 07:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2622 FAT 07:59 → LAX 09:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5588 SkyWest	FAT 06:23	LAX 07:53	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5307 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 13:58	LAX 15:23	10%	6%	0.6%	92%
UA 2622 United	FAT 07:59	LAX 09:08	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON