Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4415 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4415 FAT 06:34 → SAN 07:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3491 FAT 11:23 → SAN 12:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4415 Southwest	FAT 06:34	SAN 07:51	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	11%	5%	0.8%	92%
OO 812 SkyWest	FAT 16:17	SAN 17:44	18%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 3020 SkyWest	FAT 09:03	SAN 10:30	18%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 4087 Southwest	FAT 15:29	SAN 16:46	19%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:23	SAN 12:50	20%	12%	0.8%	74%
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON