Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1774 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1774 FLL 10:23 → BNA 11:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2581 FLL 20:55 → BNA 22:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1774 Southwest	FLL 10:23	BNA 11:41	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1955 Southwest	FLL 13:17	BNA 14:34	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1777 Southwest	FLL 18:46	BNA 20:10	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	17%	7%	1.6%	57%
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	22%	11%	2.0%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON