Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day B6 690 FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 18:32 → BOS 21:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 690 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	BOS 09:14	8%	3%	2.8%	93%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:05	BOS 13:29	22%	7%	1.4%	36%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:21	BOS 14:36	26%	11%	1.6%	70%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:31	BOS 22:46	27%	11%	1.4%	69%
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:25	BOS 00:47	31%	17%	1.6%	63%
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:32	BOS 21:55	38%	20%	1.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON