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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 48m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04AA 1474 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → BUF 12:06AA 1203 6h 02m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 07m 99% 90%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 07:01 → JFK 10:00B6 302 3h 29m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 58m 100% 89%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14B6 690 2h 49m Boston BOS 12:03 → BUF 13:47B6 915 7h 47m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:29 → LGA 14:24DL 2465 1h 53m New York LGA 16:17 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic 6h 15m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294 3h 04m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 7h 18m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:30 → DFW 17:41AA 1390 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:45 → BUF 22:50AA 574 7h 20m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON