Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1778 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1778 FLL 08:51 → BWI 11:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2994 FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1778 Southwest	FLL 08:51	BWI 11:25	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1584 Southwest	FLL 10:40	BWI 13:15	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest	FLL 15:00	BWI 17:40	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1569 Southwest	FLL 12:14	BWI 14:48	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:23	BWI 13:19	15%	6%	1.4%	72%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	25%	9%	1.1%	52%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	28%	12%	1.5%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON