Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1474 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1474 FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2149 FLL 20:55 → CLT 23:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1474 American Flight history →	FLL 06:04	CLT 08:04	4%	2%	2.0%	94%
AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 09:05	CLT 11:11	6%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 3103 American	FLL 10:56	CLT 13:03	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2585 American	FLL 13:46	CLT 15:53	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1652 American	FLL 18:24	CLT 20:33	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	21%	7%	1.2%	61%
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	26%	10%	1.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON