Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1417 FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1311 United Flight history →	FLL 08:00	DEN 10:18	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 204 United Flight history →	FLL 10:04	DEN 12:17	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1417 United Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DEN 18:18	12%	3%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:36DL 346	6h 13m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	6h 04m	95%	83%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	47m Houston	IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450	6h 08m	86%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON