Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1712 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1712 FLL 07:27 → DFW 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 3317 FLL 18:36 → DFW 20:54 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 07:27	DFW 09:43	7%	3%	2.5%	86%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	11%	4%	1.1%	95%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	FLL 11:57	DFW 14:10	14%	5%	1.1%	76%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DFW 17:41	17%	6%	1.0%	58%
AA 638 American Flight history →	FLL 16:17	DFW 18:31	18%	6%	1.1%	84%
MQ 9881 Envoy	FLL 20:01	DFW 22:15	18%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 1373 American Flight history →	FLL 17:33	DFW 19:55	19%	6%	1.1%	64%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	21%	8%	1.2%	68%
F9 3317 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:36	DFW 20:54	29%	9%	1.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON