Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2299 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2299 FLL 07:00 → EWR 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2299 United	FLL 07:00	EWR 10:04	5%	3%	2.2%	no record
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:00	EWR 11:00	11%	5%	2.0%	65%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	FLL 10:02	EWR 13:06	14%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	19%	8%	1.3%	90%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:24	EWR 20:35	22%	11%	1.2%	69%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:59	EWR 16:03	23%	11%	1.1%	78%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:53	EWR 19:00	25%	14%	1.2%	61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	28%	13%	1.6%	51%
UA 712 United	FLL 14:28	EWR 17:20	30%	13%	1.3%	no record
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	35%	16%	1.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON