tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1421 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1421 United Flight history → FLL 12:13 IAD 14:49 9% 3% 0.7% 89%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history → FLL 17:00 IAD 19:38 25% 10% 1.5% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 14m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 33m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 26m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 13m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 50m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 1h 28m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 30m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294 1h 52m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 11:11 → EWR 14:15UA 210 46m Newark EWR 15:01 → IAD 16:32UA 2301 5h 21m 62% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON