Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: B6 514 at 20:26, 30%.

Nonstops that day


B6 514 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:26	ISP 23:35	30%	10%	1.8%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Islip on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	FLL 10:00 → MCO 11:08B6 2548	1h 58m Orlando	MCO 13:06 → ISP 15:56B6 546	5h 56m	95%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON