Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: MX 366 at 07:00, 10%.

Safest bet that day MX 366 FLL 07:00 → JAX 08:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 18 FLL 21:11 → JAX 22:42 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MX 366 Breeze	FLL 07:00	JAX 08:11	10%	3%	1.8%	no record
B6 2118 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:20	JAX 14:40	31%	10%	2.1%	68%
B6 18 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:11	JAX 22:42	42%	19%	2.7%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON