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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 15m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 38m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 22m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 8h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 33m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 29m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 8h 24m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 20m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MCI 21:24DL 3023 7h 54m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON