Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1274 FLL 07:03 → MCO 08:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1948 FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1274 Southwest	FLL 07:03	MCO 08:07	3%	1%	1.4%	no record
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	10%	4%	1.2%	76%
WN 1792 Southwest	FLL 16:45	MCO 17:49	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	18%	8%	1.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON