Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1793 at 07:22, 4%.

Nonstops that day


WN 1793 Southwest	FLL 07:22	MDW 09:36	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3768 Southwest	FLL 16:59	MDW 19:14	33%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 23m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 19m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 29m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 46m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:27 → DTW 14:26DL 655	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	8h 02m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON