tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 41m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 01m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 15m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 08m 93% 84%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:27 → DFW 09:43AA 1712 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 05m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 10h 21m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → FLL 17:00 → IAH 18:56UA 1696 1h 35m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 7h 55m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:30 → DFW 17:41AA 1390 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 10h 09m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON