Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2809 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2809 FLL 06:59 → ORD 09:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 663 FLL 11:00 → ORD 13:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2809 United	FLL 06:59	ORD 09:13	12%	4%	2.0%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:27	ORD 10:56	12%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	16%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	18%	9%	0.8%	66%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:26	ORD 15:53	19%	8%	1.1%	89%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:46	ORD 15:23	24%	10%	1.6%	69%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	25%	11%	0.8%	52%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	25%	14%	3.0%	48%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	30%	10%	2.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON