Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1800 at 20:33, 25%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1800 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:33	ORF 22:57	25%	13%	2.3%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	6h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ORF 14:15DL 2925	7h 42m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:02 → ORF 11:59DL 3066	5h 59m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57DL 2133	2h 13m New York	LGA 12:10 → ORF 13:29DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	6h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 19:36 → ORF 23:25DL 5518 · flown by Endeavor	8h 38m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON