Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2089 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2089 FLL 07:03 → PHL 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 376 FLL 20:59 → PHL 23:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2089 American Flight history →	FLL 07:03	PHL 10:00	6%	3%	2.0%	70%
AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 08:48	PHL 11:51	7%	2%	1.0%	95%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	FLL 12:33	PHL 15:28	12%	4%	1.0%	87%
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 08:05	PHL 11:04	15%	4%	1.3%	66%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	21%	8%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON